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Trump: The triumph of stupidity

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In his run for the presidency, Donald Trump has attracted an inordinate amount of media attention, mainly for some of his outlandish pronouncements and positions. And the media have by and large been very good in identifying the man, who he is and what he is. He is a narcissist. He is a megalomaniac. He is a misogynist. He is a racist. He is an ill-tempered demagogue. These are all fairly accurate descriptions and they fit Trump to a T. What is all too often missing, however, is any comment on Trump's intellectual faculties. His successes as a businessman and television personality tend to obscure one thing: he is an essentially stupid man.

Stupidity can be defined in many ways. It certainly includes an inability to analyze and assess situations correctly. It can involve an inability to learn from the past. It manifests itself in a lack of common sense. It also manifests itself in an unwillingness to change even when confronted with hard evidence that one is on the wrong track (throwing good money after bad). Trump is guilty on all these fronts.

In a democracy, politics is essentially the art of achieving power by attracting the largest possible number of voting supporters. In the words of that old Dale Carnegie course, it is a matter of "how to win friends and influence people." One of the cardinal rules of politics is not to alienate large segments of the electorate. Yet that is precisely what Trump has done repeatedly. Women, Hispanics, Muslims all have reason to view Trump as totally alien and unfit for the presidency. The same goes for the press, which still plays a significant role in shaping public opinion. Trump's diatribes may win him plaudits from his red meat constituency, but will not do him any favours on election day.

A somewhat more intelligent and reflective man might also have given some thought to what worked and what did not work for some of his Republican predecessors. Trump has chosen to wallow in pessimism, launching his campaign with the statement "We're dying. We're dying "¦ the American dream is dead." This is the very antithesis of the line taken by that most successful Republican, Ronald Reagan, who endlessly proclaimed his optimism about America and its future. In adopting a number of extremist positions, Trump has also ignored the fate of the last Republican candidate to do so, Barry Goldwater. In trouncing Goldwater with the slogan "In your guts, you know he's nuts," Lyndon Johnson proved that extremism is not a recipe for success in American politics. (The slogan is one Hillary Clinton might well want to resurrect in her campaign against Trump.)

Trump's pessimism is not only politically unwise, it is also factually questionable. It is certainly true that the United States is no longer the totally dominant power and the dynamic economy that it was in the 1950s. That does not mean, however, that it has somehow been cut adrift and been buffeted by others into a subsidiary role in world affairs. The United States is still the most powerful country in the world, both economically and militarily. It today enjoys the highest rate of economic growth and the lowest rate of unemployment among major western countries. To portray it as some sort of failed state is patent nonsense. Playing to the insecurities of the uneducated and uninformed is to say the least disingenuous. It is probably also a recipe for electoral failure.

But Trump's denigration of significant segments of the American electorate pales in comparison to his treatment of foreigners and foreign countries, starting with Mexico and Mexicans. His description of Mexican immigrants as thugs and rapists was widely viewed as a national insult in that country. His threat to build a border wall only made matters worse. Trump failed to recognize that Mexico is a very important country for the United States. After Canada and China, it is the United States' third-largest trading partner. It is home to many large American investments and industrial interests. The Mexican government's active co-operation is essential to the United States in its efforts to stem the flow of illegal immigrants and narcotic drugs. As I wrote in an earlier column: "To gratuitously insult Mexico is not only counterproductive, but downright dumb."

Trump also seems intent to do his best to alienate China. In what can only be described as a campaign of China bashing, he accuses that country of underhanded economic practices and of stealing American jobs. He proposes to remedy this situation by imposing a 45 per cent tariff on all Chinese imports. He does not appear to realize that this would constitute a declaration of economic warfare and would produce almost instantaneous retaliation on the part of China. In such a hostile economic context, American workers and business interests would suffer immense losses, not least among them being the employees and owners of Walmart. Such economic measures would also sour the political relationship between the two countries, a relationship that is key to ensuring peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region at large.

Trump's threat to ban all Muslims from entering the United States is equally idiotic. In the first place, it is highly doubtful that such a ban would be legal under the Constitution of the United States, and it would certainly prompt an appeal to the Supreme Court, which would undoubtedly overturn it. In the meantime, however, Trump would do serious damage to the interests of the United States. By implying that all Muslims are potential terrorists, he gives offence to the 1.5 billion Muslims in the world for the sins of a few thousand and stokes the fire of anti-western sentiment among radical elements. He is alienating the governments of the 53 member states of the Organization of the Islamic Conference. These countries represent a major voting bloc in the United Nations. Many of them are host to large American economic investments. Many are key partners in the United States' fights against Islamist extremism and terrorism. Some, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, are of great importance to the United States as it seeks to maintain its dominant position in the Asia-Pacific region. To wilfully alienate these people and these countries shows a distinct lack of intellectual acumen.

Trump's statements and positions have also caused dismay among the European allies of the United States. While it is not uncommon for American leaders to urge Europeans to spend more money on defence, he is unique in his threat to leave NATO if they do not do so. Such a move would not only undermine the security of European states confronted with Russian adventurism, it would also be a clear case of the United States cutting off its nose to spite its face. For decades, NATO has been a key asset of the United States in its foreign and security policy. Deprived of NATO, the United States would certainly be a much diminished actor in world affairs, something Trump does not seem to understand as he pledges to "make America great again." Beyond the NATO question, there are also Trump's statements approving the results of the British referendum on withdrawing from the European Union. These can only have increased the angst of staunch founding members of the European project, such as France, Germany, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands. The simple fact is that Europe still does matter to the United States, and anything said or done to sabotage the relationship is, to say the least, unwise.

Finally, there are Trump's attacks on all free trade agreements as being detrimental to employment in the United States. In the first place, the United States is not facing an unemployment crisis. Quite the contrary. At 4.7 per cent, its rate of unemployment is in fact the envy of the western industrialized world (Canada's is 6.9 per cent and Spain's is 20.1 per cent). A better informed man than Trump would understand this and not play to the baseless fears of the similarly ill-informed. He would also understand that something such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has benefitted not only Canada and Mexico, but also the United States. The implementation of his threat to withdraw from NAFTA would in all likelihood produce more unemployment in the United States, not less.

All of this goes to demonstrate beyond a reasonable doubt that Donald Trump is an essentially stupid man. That he has enjoyed the level of success that he has in the Republican party primaries is thus something of a mystery. The consoling thought is that it will ensure that he does not win the presidency.

Louis A. Delvoie is a Fellow in the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen's University.

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