No. 19 Texas at Iowa State

When: 2:30 p.m. Saturday at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa.

Records: Texas (6-3 overall, 4-2 Big 12); Iowa State (5-4, 3-3 Big 12)

Last meeting: Texas defeated Iowa State 24-10 in Austin.

TV: FS1

What’s on the line?

Texas’ last-second win over Kansas State last weekend kept its season alive for the time being.

Even with a 6-3 record heading into Ames, Iowa, the Longhorns’ goals are still intact. They are now just one win from setting up a massive matchup in Waco next week with a Big 12 Championship Game appearance likely on the line.

The Cyclones, on the other hand, are limping into Saturday with a two-game losing streak and on the verge of losing a grasp on this season. A loss Saturday would drop Iowa State to 5-5 overall and 3-4 in the Big 12, so it’s safe to say the Cyclones seem to be in desperation mode.

When Texas has the ball

Yet again, the Longhorns proved just how dynamic the offense can be when they establish the run. Texas’ 214 rushing yards paired with the 263 passing yards last week was the most balanced offensive attack Longhorns fans have seen all year.

Texas running back Keaontay Ingram, who rushed for a career-high 139 yards, was a big reason for that. With Ingram finally looking at full health, he is going to need another big performance for the Longhorns to pull off a win in Ames. Texas will also have Roschon Johnson and Jordan Whittington available, but look for Ingram to take over against the same defense that gave up 226 rushing yards to Oklahoma last week.

As for wide receivers, Devin Duvernay, who leads the Big 12 with 78 receptions, has proven he will be a reliable option every week. Collin Johnson, who appears to be cleared after tweaking his hamstring last week, will also be a deciding factor.

When Iowa State has the ball

While Texas benefited from former Iowa State running back David Montgomery serving a first-half suspension in last year’s matchup, the Longhorns limited the Cyclones to a mere 10 points.

If the Texas defense can force Brock Purdy into a performance in the same vicinity as last year’s –– 10 for 23 with an interception and no touchdowns –– the Longhorns will have a pretty solid shot at leaving Ames with a win.

On the flip side, Purdy currently leads the Big 12 in passing. He’s also responsible for leading Iowa State to the No. 2 passing offense in the conference, which doesn’t exactly favor the Longhorns, who are second-to-last in pass defense.

Prediction

This game being played in Ames is what creates so much uncertainty for Texas. There is such a stark contrast between the team that played in Fort Worth in October and the team that controlled possession for the last 6:45 during its game-winning drive over then-No. 16 Kansas State last week.

If Texas can establish the run game once again, it will win this game. Sam Ehlinger will always have Duvernay and Johnson out wide, but what he needs is another dominant performance from not only the running backs but the offensive line.

These matchups have been far from shootouts in recent history, but neither defense is exactly dominant, so expect more points than last year’s 24-10 game. If this Texas defense looks further from the unit that gave up 48 points to Kansas and closer to their performance last week, then Texas’ Big 12 hopes should survive another week.

Score: Texas 31, Iowa State 27